TI analysts estimate that the value of the European road transport market will reach EUR 430.86 billion in 2025.

The value of the international transport market is expected to amount to EUR 132.6 billion this year, an increase of 1.7% compared with the previous year. Cross-border transport accounts for approximately 70% of the European market.

The domestic transport market is expected to grow slightly more slowly than international transport — by 1.4% — reaching a value of EUR 298.2 billion.

Weaker than forecast

The estimated market value is slightly lower than last year’s forecasts for 2025. At the end of 2024, it was expected that the market would grow by 2% this year to around EUR 436.9 billion.

At that time, it was forecast that the international transport market would increase in value by 2.4% year on year, and domestic transport by approximately 1.9% year on year.

Across Europe, market growth was driven largely by the expansion of retail sales (+3.1% in the EU), particularly in categories other than food products (+4.3%). This was supported by rising disposable incomes, wage growth, higher employment rates, and declining inflation, all of which contributed to an expansion in consumption.

As TI analysts emphasise, factors related to trade and private consumption largely shaped the European transport market in 2025.

The European industrial sector played a much smaller role in driving market growth. Manufacturing in the key economies has still failed to gain momentum. As a result, EU exports have grown only marginally — by just 0.7% year on year, according to estimates from the European Commission. US tariffs continue to constrain sales of goods outside the EU.

With industrial production subdued, imports became an important source of freight. Imports in the euro area are estimated to increase by 2.8% in 2025 compared with the previous year, largely driven by imports from China.

Actual data for the first eight months of the year confirm this trend. Intra-EU trade increased by 1.8% year on year in the period January–August 2025. Exports outside the EU were 2.5% higher than a year earlier, while imports rose by 4%.

Improving conditions in European road transport are also reflected in the financial results of logistics operators. In Q3 2025, DSV increased its revenues in the road transport segment by 135% year on year and achieved DKK 5 billion (EUR 700 million) in gross profit.

Fot. Trans.info