In Q3, European spot rates rose by 1.7 points quarter-on-quarter to 134.3 points. The contract index grew by the same amount compared with Q2 2025, reaching a similar level of 134 points.

Year-on-year, the contract index recorded stronger growth — up 3.1 points compared with 1.9 points for spot rates.

The fact that both indices reached the same level in Q3 does not mean the actual prices were identical. A similar index value indicates that both types of rates recorded comparable growth relative to the base year. As a reminder, the TI and Upply index reflects rate changes compared to a baseline price (100 points) from Q1 2017.

Economic rebound pushes rates higher

Several factors contributed to rising rates. European consumers are becoming more active again, supported by stabilizing inflation. Retail trade volume in the EU increased by 1.1% year-on-year in August 2025. Non-food products grew by more than 2%, indicating that consumers are spending beyond basic necessities.

Rising consumption, falling inflation, and the approaching holiday season pushed spot rates higher. The Q3 increase reflects retailers and distributors replenishing inventories ahead of the autumn peak. This annual cycle was reinforced by improved consumer sentiment.

The growth in contract rates, on the other hand, stems from rising economic optimism. With expectations for a stronger 2026, companies want to secure capacity now — leading to higher demand and increasing contract rates. Structural cost pressures, such as fuel, driver wages, and rising road tolls in many countries, also continue to push contract prices upward.

The manufacturing PMI has steadily improved throughout 2025. In several European economies it has already passed the neutral 50-point threshold, while in others it lies just below it — a sign that Europe’s industrial sector is climbing out of its slump.

Spain–France

The average rate from Madrid to Paris reached €1.23/km, translating into an index value of 131.9 points. Quarter-on-quarter the index fell by 4.4 points, but increased by 0.8 points year-on-year.

Spot rates averaged €1.30/km. The spot index stood at 132.1 points — down 1.1 points quarter-on-quarter but up 9.9 points year-on-year.

Poland–Germany

The Warsaw–Duisburg lane averaged €1.27/km. The contract index reached 149.6 points — 2.4 points lower quarter-on-quarter but 3 points higher year-on-year. The quarterly decline reflects the weak condition of German industry. According to Transport Intelligence, German manufacturing orders fell in Q3, reducing freight volumes from Poland, which is a key supplier of intermediate goods to German factories.

In contrast, the spot market on this lane showed increases. The index rose by 0.3 points quarter-on-quarter and by 7.2 points year-on-year, reaching 152 points in Q3 2025. Spot rates averaged €1.30/km.

Germany–France

Rates from Duisburg to Lille were significantly higher at €2.22/km. The contract index rose by 9.1 points quarter-on-quarter and 5.6 points year-on-year.

Spot rates matched the contract price, but the index behaved differently: 123.1 points, up 8.2 points quarter-on-quarter but down 6.7 points year-on-year — unlike the rising contract index.

Germany–Spain

The strongest jump in contract rates was observed between Duisburg and Madrid — up 13.4 points quarter-on-quarter and 8.4 points year-on-year, reaching 139.5 points. The average contract price was €1.35/km.

This was the most significant quarterly index increase among all major lanes, confirming the strong performance of the Spanish economy, which has been the fastest-growing in Europe for several consecutive quarters — as noted in our last quarterly report.

On the spot market, the index rose by 12.5 points quarter-on-quarter but was 1.3 points lower year-on-year, reaching 130.2 points.

France–United Kingdom

The UK-bound lane saw a clear rise as well. The Lille–London contract index reached 136.7 points — up 9.9 points quarter-on-quarter and 11.5 points year-on-year. This was also the most expensive lane in terms of absolute prices, at €3.89/km.

Spot rates were even higher, at €4.30/km. The spot index reached 142.2 points — sharply up both quarter-on-quarter (+11.4 points) and year-on-year (+11.2 points).

Supply side also pressures rates

Beyond demand, supply constraints also contribute to rising rates. The driver shortage persists across all markets. EU truck registrations fell dramatically — by 39% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025. In many European countries, the transport sector is among those most affected by financial distress. According to Transport Intelligence, in 2024 the road transport sector had the highest insolvency rate in the German economy.

These supply-side pressures will increasingly influence rate growth, especially as economic recovery strengthens demand for transport services.

Cost pressures will play a smaller role than before, though they have not disappeared. Financial difficulties across the transport sector confirm this. Rising road tolls in multiple countries have now overtaken fuel prices as the main financial challenge for carriers.

Expected price increases

The European Road Freight Sentiment Index by TI, Upply and the International Road Transport Union (IRU) increased by 4.5 points to 12.7 points in Q3 2025 — its highest level since late 2023.

As many as 46% of industry respondents expect (moderate) rate increases, while only 14% anticipate declines — the lowest share of pessimists in nearly two years.

“Our data shows that the convergence of spot and contract rates points to a gradual rebalancing of the European road freight market after several quarters of adjustment. While this trend reflects improving stability, notable disparities remain across countries and lanes. This growing synchronisation offers greater visibility for both shippers and carriers, but persistent regional volatility shows that the path to full stability in Europe is still a long way off,” said Thomas Larrieu, CEO of Upply.

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