The report includes an analysis of the main international routes in Europe as well as corridors to and from Germany, Poland and Italy based on the data from the Trans.eu freight exchange. The dominant trend across the various international routes and markets covered by the report is the growing number of freight offers while at the same time the activity of carriers and forwarders, measured by searches for loads, has been declining on most routes. This has naturally led to rate increases across the whole continent. But it’s too early for the champagne corks to pop – experts claim.

Not exactly a rebound

„This increase is a bit misleading. It would be more correct to talk about a fragile recovery not a full one,” said Mirko Giancola, Business Consultant at Trans.eu.

He added that the economic upturn is modest, visible only on some markets and only in some sectors, not a general market boom throughout Europe.

The expert also claims that the freight rate increases are not an indicator of market boom as they do not result from the natural supply-demand mechanism.

„The price raises are not a result of growing demand on the market, but are mainly due to growing costs for carriers, from higher tolls, increasing wages, insurance costs, etc. These force the carriers to raise their rates,” Mirko Giancola explained.

Giancola also says that with growing rates and with more freights offered it would seem natural for carriers to increase their activity. But that is not the case.

„However, this is a rational calculation by the carriers who are saying „no” to bad deals,” the Trans.eu expert claims. „Even with the higher prices, the costs are growing as well, leaving the carriers with very tiny margins.”

Same challenges, getting more extreme

There are also structural problems that prevent the carriers from increasing their activity on the spot exchange. Driver shortage is a major constraint across Europe, says Giancola.

„And when you have capacity constraints you give priority to contractual loads, which give you more stability and provide security,” he added.

Lack of drivers is a pan-European problem. Stephane Eliasu, Regional Sales Director for France and Benelux, said that not only is the lack of drivers a problem, but the fact the average age of the truck driver is high.

„During the period of weak demand the shortage is manageable, but once the market restarts, the issue will become critical again,” Eliasu said. „The shortage will likely limit capacity and drive the price up especially in regional and cross-border transport.”

Although the driver shortage in Spain is not as extreme as in other European markets, such as the UK or Germany, it still is a major challenge. However, the issue with drivers is not only their shortage, but also changing lifestyles and work demands.

„We do have qualified drivers in Spain, but most of them want to drive on the domestic routes and we have shortages on the long-haul directions,” Iban Roig said.

He points out that both the transport industry, but also the regulators and governments, need to make the driver job an attractive employment position again.

Iban Roig also points out that the Spanish transport market is very fragmented with around 80% of carriers being firms with up to five trucks. For them the challenges stemming from EU regulations such as Mobility Package and carbonisation targets are especially tough, explains Roig.

Iban Roig also points out that the driver shortage issue is not a new problem.

„I started working in transport 17 years ago and I recall talks of problems with driver availability in Germany. So the problem was already there but slowly and slowly it has become more and more extreme. And nothing really has been done,” Iban Roig said.

Costs keep strangling carriers

Apart from the driver shortage, a major problem in most markets, but especially visible in Germany, are the high operational costs.

„The wages, the new toll rates, the fuel taxes make the costs high especially in comparison to some Eastern Europe,” Roig said.

High costs is another Europe-wide problem. Escalating operational costs make the margins of transport companies tighter and tighter. Because of low margins and financial difficulties, as well as regulatory issues, companies across Europe are putting off investments.

„As a result the carriers are not ready to invest huge amounts of money to renovate their fleet," said Mirko Giancola.

The PITD report’s data supports this statement. All of the main transport markets analysed experienced declines in new truck registrations in H1 2025. Of these only Poland and Belgium experienced single-digit sales falls, the remaining countries saw double-digit declines.

„So not only do we have less drivers, we also have older and less trucks,” Mirko Giancola concluded.

He added that uncertainty about the regulatory environment and the green policies do not help either as companies are reluctant to invest in any sort of drives not knowing if they will be useless or not in the near future.

„These issues are universal, it is not an issue of one country or another. There might be minor differences, but it affects the whole Eurozone and even countries beyond it,” Mirco Giancola summed up.

Still room for digitalisation

Despite the technological progress there still is a large inefficiency problem in the transport market.

„For example, we still have a high rate of empty kilometers,” Mirko Giancola said, adding that this issue translates to wasted fuel and wasted driver’s time, which is particularly painful nowadays with the driver shortage.

Nicolo Calebrese, the Regional Sales Director for Italy, points out that a big issue currently in the country is digitalisation of the sector. He pointed out that the Italian government is running a 157 mln euro grant programme aimed at digitalisation of the sector.

„We hope this will give the sector a boost in optimization because in Italy we are facing the same problems as our European colleagues. We hope the implementation of digital tools will increase efficiency and reduce costs,” Nicolo Calabrese said.

Calabrese added that the sector hopes the digitalisation will help, among others, with the driver shortage which in Italy is estimated at around 22,000 vacancies.

„The big problem is also that most drivers are over 50 years old and in the next few years they will be retiring,” Calabrese said.

Solid growth expected in 2026

With lack of drivers, overall lower volumes on the market and costs squeezing margins, the industry is waiting for an economic rebound and better times. And experts are coming with some positivity.

„The good news is that a more consistent and solid growth is coming,” said Mirko Giancola. But there is a fly in the ointment. „The bad news is that we still must have some patience before it comes.”

The European Commission’s GDP growth forecast for the eurozone for 2025 is a mere 0.9%. A more noticeable growth of 1.4% is expected for 2026.

„Demand for transport normally follows the trends in the economy. The anticipated economic growth in 2025 combined with the need to restock the inventory after a long period of stocking give us hope for a recovery in demand for transport,” Mirko Giancola said.

Iban Roig expects the rates on the German market to remain more or less stable in the last quarter of 2025 and the first three months of 2026.

„After the first quarter of 2026 the rates should start to increase along with the recovery of the German economy,” Iban Roig said.

Roig expects to see a recovery in trade on the routes between Germany and France and with the Benelux countries, which, together with driver shortage, should contribute to rate increases.

As for the Spanish market, which, according to the report’s findings, has been the one to withstand the current economic slowdown with relative success, Roig believes the tendency will be similar to most European markets, meaning stable rates in the short-term and increase in the medium and long-term.

Stephane Eliasu also expects rates to continue growing in France, by about 4-6% in the coming quarters, as carriers pass on the higher costs to the clients. However, Eliasu points out that the current political turbulances in France does not help the economy.

„We can still expect a moderate recovery in France next year. However, due to the political situation companies postpone their decisions and are putting off strategic long-term decisions,” Eliasu said. He added that this could affect demand for transport. On the other hand, like everywhere in Europe, costs are rising and the supply side remains constrained.

As for Italy, according to Nicola Calabrese, the country’s GDP is to increase by 0.7-0.9% in the next three years.

„Transport activity should grow supported by infrastructure projects, expansion of intermodal transport and growing e-commerce,” the Italian Regional Sales Director said.

The time to improve is now

Mirko Giancola claims that the current moment, when the market is starting to improve, but is still before a big increase, is the perfect optimization window for logistics and transportation companies. In his opinion market players should focus on three key strategic areas – maximize efficiency, capacity preparation, and optimising the management processes.

„The non-negotiable mission is to eliminate inefficiency. Reduce as many empty kilometers as possible, optimize the load factor and reduce the variable cost on every load,” Mirko Giancola said. Basically the goal is to „ squeeze every load and every route to maximum to to reduce the variable cost and maximize the margin.”

Here digitalization comes in handy.

„Digitalization can help us a lot with  this task because digital platforms allow us to achieve the level of detail and realtime coordination which are simply impossible to do manually,” he added.

With regards to capacity preparation, Giancola claims companies with fleet assets should work on their drivers’ skills and provide the best possible tools for them. As for firms without fleets, now is the time to secure reliable subcontractors.

„The time when the demand is low is the time to secure subcontractors, because it will be much more difficult when the demand picks up,” Giancola explained.

The third element – which is optimizing the management and operation processes to coordinate resources – cannot be underestimated.

„This will give us a huge competitive advantage in comparison to companies that will be stuck in manual processes,” Giancola said. He added that the key is to be „reactive” not „proactive”. Just like with the need to secure the capacity now in the slower times not later when everyone will be battling for it.

Fot. PITD